Can Barak win?
Senator Barak Obama is the first African-American with a strong possibility to win a party’s nomination for Presidency. In a crowded field of declared and speculative candidates, does this newcomer to the national political stage have any chance to win?
His advantages are:
Name – His is a politician’s dream name. It is unique. Only two Presidents in the 20th Century, Lyndon Baines Johnson and Woodrow Wilson have had names that are in the U.S. Census’s list of the Ten Most Common Last Names. . Senator Obama also has the enviable position to be identified by one name only, ‘Barak’.
Accent – When Barak speaks one hears no strong discernable accent that can ridiculed by comics and candidates alike.
Story – Americans love a good story. From his bi-racial background to his pop star like popularity he is living the American dream. Hollywood could not write Barak’s story better.
His disadvantages are:
Political Office –Senators do not win elections. Since 1960, seven sitting or former Senators (John F. Kennedy, Barry Goldwater, Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, Bob Dole, Al Gore, and John Kerry) have won their party’s nomination. Only one, JFK went on to win. The favored political office for presidential aspirants is Governor. In fact, of the last 20 Presidents, eleven were Governors at one time.
Age – If elected, Barak will be the fifth youngest President. Although America is obsessed with youth, the voters prefer a President that is older as indicated by the average age of presidents (mid 50’s).
Home State – American population migration in the last 30 years has hurt Mid-Western political clout. Middle America has lost Electoral Votes to the South and Far West. The last truly elected Mid-Western President was Harry S. Truman.
These and other factors as race, finances, competitors, the War in Iraq will influence his chances; Barak has a good chance as any to win the nomination. I wish him well.